The global market has been in turmoil this week, with the United States declaring a state of emergency, a significant plunge in crude oil prices, stock market circuit breakers triggered in eleven countries, and Bitcoin's value being halved. We've always hoped to witness history, but we never expected it to come so suddenly, teaching us that anything is possible and what it means to have wealth on paper.
At 9:34 PM on March 9th, the U.S. stock market opened with a plunge of 7%, signifying the evaporation of 3 trillion U.S. dollars. It's hard not to feel a pang of sympathy for America's "401K" plans; one wonders how they are faring. The United States is a country with a low savings rate, and those who have leveraged their investments heavily will find that, after the fireworks, everything dissipates like smoke.
When black swans are flying everywhere and gray rhinos are running rampant, are you watching from the sidelines or preparing for the worst? These two mindsets will lead to significant differences in the future. Seeing the impending disaster ahead, one can either take a detour, stop to check, or at least fasten a seatbelt. Some might say, look at the U.S., just out of the ICU and now in the KTV, so what's next?
There is a notable difference between the mindset of a financial manager and an investor. A good investor's first reaction is to seize the opportunity, while a good financial manager's first reaction is to hedge risks.
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Investing versus financial management: Investing aims to maximize investment returns, with a value yardstick, requiring more forward-thinking. It involves dynamic risk analysis and contemplation. Financial management versus investing: Financial management seeks long-term returns while controlling risks, with asset allocation, requiring more configuration thinking. It involves a comprehensive allocation to respond to changes statically.
After a market crash, consider five things in financial management:
First and foremost, seek safety.
First, ensure comprehensive insurance coverage. There have always been various excuses, and there are always gaps when it comes to insurance, but when risks arise, it can indeed increase the ability to withstand them.
Thailand's recent entry requirements demand a "medical insurance order with a coverage of over $100,000." Although this clause has been interpreted in various ways, it illustrates that insurance is at least a support in the face of potential risks. Additionally, even if the state pays for medical expenses during this pandemic, on March 14th, at a press conference in Beijing, it was emphasized that for those who have not participated in basic medical insurance and are diagnosed with imported COVID-19 cases or suspected cases during the process of returning to the country, the medical expenses incurred are, in principle, to be borne by the patient personally.The sequence of configuring accidents, critical illnesses, medical care, life insurance, annuities, and financial management is the safety line of wealth. Especially that annuity insurance, it is an asset that lasts as long as life. When witnessing historical events, one realizes how important a stable income is, and risk never has a rehearsal.
Secondly, large-denomination certificates of deposit as a bottom-of-the-box asset. When risks arise, large-denomination CDs and insurance are the best protection against risks. On one hand, having deposits, which are backed by national credit, will make us feel secure; on the other hand, under monetary easing, interest rate cuts are imminent, and long-term interest rates are trending downward, locking in long-term large-denomination CDs can yield more benefits.
Now is the best time for long-term idle money that cannot bear risk to be allocated to large-denomination CDs.
Thirdly, gold as a safe-haven. Recently, gold has also experienced about a 4% fluctuation in the adjustment of overseas markets, and many people are amazed that safe-haven assets are not safe anymore. The adjustment of gold is precisely because of its safe-haven attribute, which leads investors holding other assets to choose to sell liquid gold to offset huge losses.
Remember, unlike deposits, gold can avoid the credit risk of a country. It is a globally recognized asset. Although it does not bear interest, it has proven over the centuries to outpace inflation.
Secondly, have a plan.
Fourth, make plans for your debts and consumption. We cannot deny the economic impact brought by the pandemic, and blind pessimism and optimism are equally detrimental to long-term wealth growth. After the pandemic ends, it's no problem to watch a movie or have a big meal of grilled skewers, but if planning to buy a car, a house, or a long journey, it should be based on one's financial situation. In wealth management, it is taboo to spend beyond one's means, living for the moment.
In terms of debt, whether to choose the LPR for your mortgage; whether to make installments for your credit card; and whether there is a corresponding plan for external debts and loans.
In terms of consumption, distinguish between necessary and optional consumption, and how to consume rationally and restrainedly under the temptation of live streaming, online shopping, and cashless payments?
In terms of savings, if the "moonlight clan" (those who spend all their income) have realized the vulnerability of companies during the pandemic, they should understand the necessity of saving money even more. If it is difficult to develop the habit of forced savings, then it might be helpful to learn more about financial management, spend more time on it, and gradually cultivate the habit of saving money through osmosis.Finally, in terms of market aggression,
Markets are inherently cyclical, with the end of one cycle signifying the beginning of another. We cannot predict the lowest or best points, but employing scientific methods can help us avoid being overly aggressive or missing out in the face of major trends. On the basis of risk aversion, "idle money" can be allocated with an investment mindset, leveraging the power of professionals to position in the market's golden pits and wait patiently for opportunities.
Fifthly, under the premise of risk, a more recommended approach is fixed investment. Fixed investment is not merely about mutual funds but also a habit of investing. It is a method of sowing when we see market adjustments and firmly believe in the cyclical nature of the future. By preparing for the worst and investing multiple times, even adjustments are anticipated.
While it is not certain that the A-share market can break away from the trend, the revaluation of the "Chinese asset safe haven" presents opportunities; the stock market value becomes prominent below 3000 points, and the 12 times price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is also a historical low for the market; China is also likely to be one of the earliest countries to resume work under the pandemic, all of which present opportunities. Participating through fixed investment in funds and other varieties is a good target.
For crude oil, US stocks, Europe, and commodities, professionals can certainly keep an eye on them. Opportunities are always brewing in crises, but it is important to manage positions well. In times of despair and panic, some people make the leap upward, while others may bottom-fish at the halfway point; this is a test of vision and luck. Last year, Dalio's Bridgewater Fund bet on a sharp drop in US stocks, arguing that the current US debt problem is very similar to that of 2008 and 1982, and specifically bet on a plunge in March. Now that March has come and US stocks have indeed fallen, Bridgewater has made a significant profit. This perhaps only the expertise that gives Bridgewater the confidence to make such bets.
For most people, risk aversion is the primary consideration. When risks arise, the first thing to do is to hold on to cash and maintain a steady flow; secondly, to plan wealth well, to know how many bullets one has in one's small strategy, and what can be done, to keep a long-term account; finally, to exchange acceptable risks for potential large returns, not to miss out, and not to fall behind.
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